Jaipur • New Delhi • Bengaluru • Guwahati • Kolkata
This book discusses the Indian economic crisis and
brings out what went wrong and the correction necessary for getting the economy
back to high growth trajectory, leading to economic transformation. To do so,
the book covers trends in performance of Indian economy since the Global
Financial Crisis to the COVID-19 effect, bringing out factors that have
determined the same.
The book questions the approach to macroeconomic
policy of both the RBI and the government and brings out what it takes for
macroeconomic policy to be supportive of high growth. It contains revealing
contrasts with East Asia and China, although India has the same potential to
grow with an expansion of manufacturing. Overall, it argues that macroeconomic
policies (as much as structural, industrial, and trade policies) have been
deficient and even good initiatives on the industrial policy and trade flounder
for the lack of a strategic approach to macroeconomics. The book highlights the
special opportunities present in an emerging economy with vast under and
utilised labour and the macroeconomic policy initiatives that can take
advantage of this key feature.
It covers the macroeconomic data on growth using
multiple indicators, then the external shocks and the internal policy
measures/responses; besides, GVA/GDP, credit, exports, external transactions,
interest and policy rates, yields, exchange rates, money, capital flows, indices of industrial
sector, price indices and inflation, government expenditures, tax rates, fiscal
deficits, market uncertainty measures to present a holistic picture of the
economy and the shocks and policy actions that have followed. The book uses an
innovative method of presentation and the consistency of the trends/stances of
both monetary and fiscal policy using these large number of variables. It
discusses the debate on overestimation of GDP/GVA growth estimates over the
years from 2011-12 to about 2016-17 comprehensively. There is special coverage
of GST with a comparison with China. Coverage also includes performance since
the COVID-19 crisis again using a large number of indicators and an explanation
for the same in terms of the limitations of the government’s initiatives to
counteract.
The book is a quick and ready reference of what has
happened in macroeconomic terms to those interested in the relevant facts. It
is of interest to international economists, policy analysts, and investors
whose need to understand that the Indian economy in macroeconomic terms and in
terms of the stances and penchant of the government and the RBI is of value.
1. Introduction
2. Trends in Growth Since the GFC
3. Credit, Employment, and the Current
Account
4. Capital Formation and Foreign
Investment
5. Inflation and Monetary Developments
6. Policy and Analyses
7. Reflexive, Not Reflective Monetary
Policy
8. The COVID Crisis and Response
9. The Recovery
10. The Challenge of Manufacturing
11. GST and the Discrimination Against
Production Oriented States
12. Conclusions
Dr. Sebastian Morris is Senior Professor, and Chair of
the Centre for Public Policy and Governance at the Goa Institute of Management.
Earlier he had been teaching macroeconomics, infrastructure, Indian economic
performance, and public policy at the Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad
for over 25 years. He initiated and edited the pioneering India Infrastructure
Reports on various themes, which set the discussions for infrastructure reform
in India. He was the lead author of the book Growth and Transformation of Small
Firms and had originally designed and delivered several programmes for senior
civil servants including Phase V programmes covering governance and economic
strategy, economic reforms, regulation and policies for enhanced public value
creation. He was also ICCR Chair Professor at the Copenhagen Business School,
and Ford Foundation Fellow at the University of Pennsylvania, in addition to
which he has been a consultant to various governments. He has taught
extensively in the executive programmes of the IIMA engaging on the Indian
economy, its growth and transformational challenges
